1. What dangers does the Fed present to EMs today? One of the biggest risks, says Mr Koepke, is that it might “get behind the curve” and delay raising rates for too long. This would result not only in a surprisingly big hike when it came, but also a higher terminal interest rate than would otherwise be the case.
5. Closer to home, fake official data are just as prevalent. The UK’s Office for National Statistics on Tuesday reported that British inflation, measured by its longstanding retail prices index, rose to 4.1 per cent in December. This number is nonsense and the ONS knows it. It tells people the RPI “does not meet the required standard” to be given a quality stamp, yet it has refused since 2012 to take steps to improve the measure and bring it closer to the lower headline measure of 3 per cent.
Of course, these same new forces may also trigger a backlash and a reversion to old command-and-control ways of leading. The politicians who dominate the world stage are, depressingly, mostly cut from the old cloth, and the leadership challenges they face, from Brexit to North Korea, are particularly complex.